Mental Game
Five Takeaways from the Postseason and World Series
October 30, 2026 · 6 min read · Jackson Hicks
Another season has come to a close, and with a lockout looming we're probably going to have plenty of time to dissect the 2026 season and playoffs. But after watching a lot of baseball over the last month, I wanted to share five big takeaways from this October.
These are a mix of my own thoughts, things I noticed while watching the games, and a couple of statistical takeaways. For those, I pulled every pitch of the 2026 postseason from Statcast (11,551 of them across 40 games) and threw in every postseason since 2021 for good measure (248 games total).
So if you're like me and are already looking for something to scratch that baseball itch, join me as I try to put into words another wild, exciting, and beautiful postseason.
1. Velo continues to be king, but it isn't what's deciding games
So many times throughout this past month, I marveled with guys in our facility about how hard pitchers are throwing now. And the jump in velocity once you get to the playoffs is real. The 12 playoff staffs averaged 94.9 mph on four-seamers in the regular season and 96.3 mph in the postseason. The share of four-seamers at 98+ more than doubled, from 10.7% to 26.2%.
But most of that jump comes from teams using their better arms more, not from guys emptying the tank for something extra when the games mean more. Comparing each pitcher to himself (70 pitchers with 50+ postseason pitches), the gain was about 0.65 mph, and 76% of them threw harder. The rest of the jump came from who got the ball: managers handed October innings to their hardest throwers (more on that later).
But throwing harder than the other dugout didn't win games. Across all 248 postseason games since 2021, the staff with the harder average fastball won 56.9% of the time, exactly its regular-season rate. The staff with more fastballs at 95+ won 56.0%, compared with 55.8% from April to September. In October, velocity is the price of admission, not the edge.
2. Mental toughness, and the ability to focus on the guy in front of you, matters
I was a late-inning reliever for most of my professional baseball career. And, while I never pitched on a stage nearly as big as the MLB Playoffs, I did give up a few game-altering home runs, so I know how much of a gut-punch that is and how hard it is to refocus after that.
That's why Ian Seymour had one of my favorite outings of the entire postseason in Game 4 of the World Series, despite giving up what looked like a series-losing home run to the first hitter he faced. Even after that Cooper Pratt home run, Seymour gritted through the next four batters (including an 11-pitch ordeal against Jackson Chourio that ended with a double) to leave the deficit at just one run. That gave the Rays the chance to come back in the bottom of the 12th and extend the series.
The same can be said of Jeff Hoffman last year. Most will remember the devastating home run he gave up to Miguel Rojas. But, as a fan of relievers and mental toughness, I'll always be impressed that he buckled down and got Shohei Ohtani to fly out and struck out Will Smith. For all the young pitchers out there, that's the resiliency and ability to focus on the present that you should strive for.
3. Predictive metrics aren't always great at predicting results
For each of the 11 series, I asked a simple question: did the team with the better regular-season pitching staff win? The answer depends almost entirely on how you measure "better."
The measures built on runs that actually crossed the plate (ERA, park-adjusted ERA-, and runs allowed per nine) picked 9 or 10 of the 11 winners. The estimators we lean on to judge true talent (FIP, xFIP-, SIERA) picked 6 or 7.
As somebody who lives in the world of FIP and SIERA, this surprised me. But it shouldn't have, because those stats strip out defense and contact management on purpose to focus solely on a pitcher's performance. But, run prevention comes down to more than just a pitcher. And in a short series, the ability to turn balls into play into outs is extremely valuable.
There's a reason for the saying "Pitching and Defense Win Championships," and that held up this year. But this postseason was a good reminder that run-prevention is about more than just a pitching staff's predictive metrics.
4. High-leverage relievers matter even more in October
I remember being in high school watching the 2014 and 2015 Royals bullpen carry the team to two World Series appearances and a championship. If they had a lead after 5 innings, the game felt over with some combination of Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis, Greg Holland, and Ryan Madson slamming the door. And this year's Brewers team felt the same.
The numbers bear this out too. It's no secret that managers have quicker hooks for their starters in the playoffs. Fewer than half of postseason starters got a third look at the lineup, which pushes more of every game onto the bullpen.
When that many innings shift to the bullpen, it matters who is getting them. Across all 248 postseason games since 2021, the team that used fewer pitchers won 65.4% of the time, compared with 46.2% in the regular season. And that doesn't mean using the bullpen less. It means relying on your higher leverage arms more.
The World Series was a perfect example. Here's how the Brewers and Rays split their postseason innings, with each team's back-end trio defined as its three highest-leverage relievers in the regular season:
Milwaukee more than doubled its back end's workload, and those three were nearly untouchable. Trevor Megill (30 saves, 1.85 FIP) and Abner Uribe (1.97 ERA) were elite all season. Aaron Ashby was the revelation. After a solid regular season (3.12 ERA), he threw 18 scoreless postseason innings.
The Rays were built the other way. Their rotation carried 57% of their postseason innings, led by Drew Rasmussen and Freddy Peralta. Their closer Bryan Baker didn't allow a run in 10 innings. The problem was the bridge between them. The rest of Tampa Bay's bullpen threw 37 postseason innings at a 4.86 ERA, and 4.96 in the World Series. Aside from Game 4, they just didn't have guys who could provide several shutdown innings and needed a bunch of guys to be "on" each night.
Of course, this is just one matchup. But the Brewers' three-headed monster played an outsized roll in bringing the franchise their first ever championship.
5. The best team won
The MLB Postseason is often described as a crapshoot. But the Brewers had the best record in baseball each of the last two years and continued to dominate all month, finishing the playoffs with an 11-2 record. And, interestingly enough, the team with the better regular-season record won each of the 11 postseason series.
Going into an offseason where there will be so much talk of small-market vs. big-market, of competitive balance, and of parity, it seems fitting that a small-market team full of young, homegrown stars broke through to win their franchise's first World Series.
As a pure baseball fan, this was an incredibly fun team to watch all year long, and especially in the playoffs. Here's hoping we can see them on the field again sooner rather than later.
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