The Mound Visit
MMV #028: STOP Using ERA to Evaluate Performance
July 10, 2023 · 2 min read · Jared Gaynor
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Read time: 2 minutes
ERA has historically been used as the primary way to evaluate how good a pitcher is.
Over a long period of time it likely will do that, but it fails to tell the whole story.
How did he or she create their ERA?
Was it luck?
Did they have a good defense?
Did they dominate every hitter?
ERA in a short period of time can mistakenly lead us to think a player is good or bad.
Here are 2 examples of a 0.00 ERA performance:
Player A
K
K
K
Player B
BB
BB
Lineout to SS
F8 to the warning track
BB
Hard GB to 2nd for a 4-3
Player A clearly had the better performance, but according to ERA they were equal. As coaches and players, we want to evaluate performance on things we control.
ERA is not fully in our control. It factors in luck and your defense.
The 3 things we have MORE control over are:
- Strikeouts
- Walks
- Damage
You could argue these aren’t COMPLETELY in our control, but for the most part they are. These are also the 3 factors that go into FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching).
This stat is on the same scale as ERA, but focuses on the things in our control.
If you would like to calculate your own FIP, click here.
If you consistently:
- Miss bats
- Attack the strike zone
- Limit damage
You are giving yourself the best chance at success.
Who were the top 3 in FIP in 2022?
- Carlos Rodon 2.25
- Kevin Gausman 2.38
- Shohei Ohtani 2.40
Gausman is a good example of a much higher ERA then FIP.
His ERA was 3.35 ranking 25th in baseball, but he ranked 3rd in walks and 8th in strikeouts.
Control the controllables!
RECAP
Why ERA isn’t the best for evaluation:
- Performances aren’t equal
- Involves things out of our control
- Focus on K’s, BB’s, and damage instead (FIP)
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